Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Another Coffee Talk



Another casual coffee shop setting with my three friends Eva, Sid and Nance.

Me: Have you guys heard even coffee making not a profitable business anymore? What is going on all around us?

Sid: Yeah and funny thing that there are many many financial articles on how millennial are throwing away their damn retirement income at overprized coffee. The so called elders are not able to make an overpriced coffee profitable and they just keep worrying about what will happen to us after three decades or so.

Eva: How is this possible? Don’t they know simple math. $5 in and $4 out so $1 profit?

Nance: I think this is all a big corporate fraud and everyone is getting better at it every passing day. Open a business, show it has potential, take all money in from banks and gullible investors, launder it to some island country and show all loss. It’s that simple.

Me: Oh damn you just figured out entire modern business model!

Eva: He he he! Not funny. Gullible investors Nance is talking about is us! We lose all our money which we saved by not sending out clothes to laundry, walking 8 blocks instead of taking uber, keeping my shopping limited to only once a month and cutting down all pricey yummy drinks at coffee shop. Oh wait.. it doesn’t look that bad when I am taking about it.

Sid: I am telling you, the last one would definitely save your health for retirement 😃

Me: Seriously guys. Think about it. We are more in debt comparing to any past generations. Corporate debt is highest ever.

Nance: Why only corporate, credit card, home loan even education debt is at all-time high levels and it seems no one care. We are borrowing from future and spending now.

Sid: Who is future and from where this person got all this money? 😃

Me: Very funny!

Eva: No actually if you think about, it is not. If everyone is in debt so who is giving all this debt? Answer would be no one or collectively all of us. So actually we are borrowing from our future us so we need to keep making money to pay off our present infinitely.

Me:   Oh Damn! This is looks very complicated and scary. So are we ever going to retire?

Eva: Yes. If we trick similar way as our elders are doing now. By making our next generation keep borrowing from us and paying us premium now, the interest income.

Sid:  That is not going to happen. Generations are already getting smarter and many places interest rates are already going negative. So you really pay bank to keep your money.

Nance: So you would not be able to lend money and live on based on someone else back just because that person did not had money when he started working. This sounds fair to me. If you have money you can exchange it for goods fair transaction. You cannot keep getting new money just because you already have money.

Me: Right now interest keep a check on borrowing, if no interest what would stop me to borrow high amounts?

Sid: This would not be a big issue. Banks can check pay-ability same way they do now just no interest and as always pool of money would be same so no over borrowing.

Me:  It sounds so simple when you say it. I don’t know why this simple concept is not implemented yet.

Sid:  As Eva put before, our elders tricked us and we just keep giving them our hard earned income for no reason. They can just give us money because they are anyways not doing anything with it and we can pay them back later same amount no extra please.

Nance: Yes I think this extra seems main reason behind income gap and social divide. People who got money will continue to get more and more even if they will do nothing.

Me: Hmm Interesting. So what about real old people. They would never able to retire. Oh no. They would by saving similar way and retire and use money but they would just not get interest. No interest, no inbuilt inflation, all prices depends on real demand and supply. I think this can work.

Sid: Yes money was invented to have a simple exchange mechanism instead of hauling goods for exchange. Interest was never intended part of it.

Nance: I still have a question. If I am not getting anything back why would I give you my money anyways?

Eva: You would not give me money. You would pool money in some social place just like today in Bank. They would handle lending and recovery just like they do today. Any difference will be offset by inflation in long run but with supply side and human social efficiency improvements inflation will still be close to zero or negative.

Me: So it would be like you work, you buy whatever you need save some for future. If you want to buy or do something extra for which you need money, you can borrow, buy that and return money no interest, sounds simple.

Sid: Yup this will remove lot of unnecessary uncertainty about future and also handle income inequality to some extent.

Nance: Maybe we are heading that way, who knows!

Eva: So future will remain uncertain no matter what 😄

Sid: Yeah who know we would also able to get away by kicking this can down the road for our next generation to handle 😃

Me: Yeah with the same message we got “We love you and we care about you!”

All laughed. Paid for our overpriced coffee hoping this chain would remain here tomorrow because we love it, no matter if it even cost our retirement income!